Shootin Hoops?

2011JUL07 - 0600, 32.54N - 122.33W, Bar 1014, Wind 8 knots @ 310, Sea 1 meter - long N swell, Cloud - 100%, DOC 98 miles.
This Message, containing some hilarity just received from the boat:

I replied how You try to think of everything but Murphy always has some other trick you didn't consider up his sleeve.And I scrutinized every possible bit of information I could discovered and I have developed a surprising theory:

They were faster with the Basketball attached!Actually that is probably not true. But as it turns out, over the last 24 hours they either lost very little, in some cases held their own and in others they and actually gained back ground on some of the Monday starters. Based on the light upwind race so far I was worried it would be much worse. And they shaved more than 100 hours from Transpacs Estimated Corrected Ttime - which means little this early in the race!

The longest days runs came from boats in the Aloha Division.

My research has lead me to conclude that in a rich get poorer kind of NHL Draft sort of way the wind out west was not as good for the leaders and progressively improved the closer you got to the shore. Our boy cleverly positioned themselves at the back of the pack to take most advantage of those conditions. I also have to wonder how things might have worked out yesterday without the basketball too.

And still more good news all of the weather gurus are predicting that the light winds of yesterday are a memory today so I hope NE will not have to endure that pain ahead.

In another message I received from the boat Doug observed how the better breeze offshore - which moves around - could move away from them faster than they could move towards it. In keeping with the good news nature of this report I am pleased to report that it appears that situation is also reversed. Over the course of this afternoon and evening the synoptic wind is forecast to move shoreward scooping up the Monday fleet and hurrying them along toward Hawaii in earnest.

Report from onboard

This just in:

The Allure of Southern California. . .

. . . apparently still has a hold on our boys at sea.

2011Jul07-0600, 33.37N-119.55W, Bar 1012, Wind 6 knots at 270, 24 hr. DOC 78, Sea 1 meter (comment @ 360), Cloud 100 percent.

No records were broken last night. Narrow Escape continued to move west however earning an I bet hard fought 78 miles in the last 24 hours. Their relative performance continues negative compared with many of the July 4th starters however.

The "boat for boat" leaders have extended to about 50 miles in front of NE. But that is not the bad news. The bad news is they still need to get about 175 miles further west before reaching any kind of reliable and stronger winds. The good news is they are predicted to be sailing in generally improving conditions all that way.

There is forecast to be more wind this afternoon and early evening than yesterday and while the wind will lighten again tonight there should still be some. And maybe some more good news. Depending somewhat on whose forecast you believe if the improving wind does not move further east, or stay on later tonight, the current scenario seems to suggest that none of the leaders will quite have the legs to get far enough west, before the wind lightens again overnight, to be able to break out into the more reliable and stronger synoptic wind. Such wind still forecast to prevail over most of the course for an extended period into the future. That means it now appears less possible that they will be sailing away in 15 knots of wind at a better angle while NE languishes for another overnight in 4 to 6 knots of wind. It is likely that the entire fleet of Monday starters should encounter the offshore winds over the course of Thursday's already improving trend even closer to shore.

It's all about damage control until then. Unfortunately we expect NE to continue to lose ground on her fleet for the next 24 hours. Limiting the amount will play a pivotal role in the catch up game when things improve.

Further offshore the wind all across the course presently ranges from 15 to 20 knots and at an angle Narrow Escape likes.

We remain on the edge of our seats here at the Narrow Escape Home Office.

The Food is Still Holding Out!

This report just in from the boat.

I told him that they were going to talk nicer about Narrow Escape when they arrived at the Classic Transpac conditions that are waiting just offshore!

Slow Going

2011JUL05-0600, 33.40N-119.15W, Bar 1011, Wind 200-240, TWS 2-6, SOC 2.8, DMG 48, Sea Calm, Cloud < 10 Percent.

Well there is no getting far in conditions like these! Overnight the fleet was impacted by a small and very local low pressure cell nearly right on top of them.

Predictably Chuggy and Doug had a slow night.

Narrow Escape's design does not make much compromise for light wind sailing. It is long and flat with very little rocker resulting in a lot of wetted surface compared to its sail area. Since 2009 Chuggy has added a, roll up, Code Zero (badly trimmed picture above) to the inventory which they hope to use like a giant Genoa in the light windward work. But compared with other designs in their fleet, no matter what, Narrow Escape struggles in conditions like these.

Today better pressure (8 knots TWS) is estimated to stretch nearer inshore reaching it's apex at about 1500 today. This could be the play of the race - already. To reach it, and a rich get richer scenario of steadily increasing wind, Chuggy and Doug need to reach into their bag of tricks and find another 50 miles of offing before that time. Otherwise the area of increased wind retracts seaward again overnight.

Some of the boats in their division are 15 miles closer to getting there and those who do will sail away rolling up the (wind) carpet behind them. Those boats who escape will be sailing in progressively stronger winds and building a lead that may be difficult for those left behind to recover in the great weather pattern that has developed across the rest of the course.

Nothing interesting is forecast to happen after that until about dinnertime on Wednesday when the northwesterly wind 10 knots TWS is predicted to fill in over the area.

In the worst case scenario at least they will be well rested when things finally improve!

Above is a picture produced by Raytech showing Narrow Escape's 0600 position and the optimum route generated at that time.

The optimum route calculation is less than ideally reliable when wind strength predictions get into these low values and I don't think anyone wants to take a run up to Cape Concepcion.

The blue lines are Isochrones that Raytech explores when developing the optimum track. They are set in this picture at 4 hours. The Isochones show runs of just 12 to 16 miles for a while into the future but out on the west end of this picture they are averaging about 42 miles - so the trick is to get there!

Chuggy's Second Best Start Ever?

Getting in position for the start!

These 24 Hours

Racing to Hawaii has evolved since the first race in 1906. Then just finding the islands was a sort of victory.

Now, using vast technology it is all about finding the fastest way to the islands. A key consideration in this pursuit is sailing in stronger wind and/or a more favourable angle. Other than Axle Fox no one I know can actually see the wind in front of his boat never mind miles into the future. Getting that right really impacts on the duration and enjoyment of your race.

Weather forecasting has come a long way in the intervening 100 years and now Meteorologists estimate the weather long into the future. These estimates are based on series of pressure predictions which they develop anticipating what might develop. They become less reliable the further out they go but still a useful tool. Now you can receive these weather charts on board and software, often found on board, can animate the charts to give a flowing picture of conditions expected.

And there are a lot of offshore weather routing services available to help sailors extract the nuances from the charts.

Reputedly one of the best for detailed inshore work around the Catalina Basin is Sailing Weather Service http://www.sailwx.com/. And I have reviewed it closely.

Presently the conditions down the course are near perfect. And they continue that way in the forecasts for the entire time our team should be on the water - so really good news except for the next 24 hours or 100 miles however you want to look at it.

The time tested, past the West End of Catalina and then head a little south, method has not looked good for more than a week because of some weird little High spinning near shore and another one further south.

In every scenario a course (scary) north of the great circle route is indicated at first and then a very near circle route the rest of the way. The Great Circle route is the shortest distance but it rarely pays. With the circle route you run a good chance of having the High come down and park on top of you - which means no wind.

The RayTech and Expedition Software, which read the GRIB Files (animated interpretation of the Weather Charts) are not nostalgic however and both suggest a course north after the start through Santa Barbara Channel all the way to Cape Conception - like 125 miles up the coast!

The time tested, getting past Catalina and then bearing off a little south approach has not looked good for more than a week with some weird little high spinning near shore and another further south.

I think our team will find their way near or slightly north of the great circle route on the shortest distance to the consistent wind.

You don't start to get into it at all until you are out past the islands - about 65 miles and complicating things greatly the consistent winds modeled pull out further offshore tonight meaning a potential night of drifting after midnight.

So here is what we think we know: The wind at the start was about 10 knots out of the NW. SailWX did not have that angle showing up until sometime between 1400 and 1700. If we begin to believe them at that point the wind still starts getting lighter before the West End.

There is an area of 4 to 6 knots TWS predicted out to past the islands but anything south of west is death.

It looks like there might be a bald spot with less than 4 knots TWS between the outer islands and about 85 miles offshore where things start to get better (8 knots TWS). But even then they must continue to apply themselves because that better wind pattern is predicted to retreat offshore in the wee hours around 0400 Tuesday morning.

The wild cards are catabatic effect wind near shore and islands and wind direction which I neglected to mention predicts fair amount of westerly flow between Catalina and the outer islands.

We must be mindful that there are newer designs that do much better that Narrow Escape in light wind and upwind and especially in light upwind.

If the predictions come true Chuggy and Dougie need to find a way to get out offshore about 85 miles in the about first 15 hours of the race. After that things get easier for our team.