Slow Going

2011JUL05-0600, 33.40N-119.15W, Bar 1011, Wind 200-240, TWS 2-6, SOC 2.8, DMG 48, Sea Calm, Cloud < 10 Percent.

Well there is no getting far in conditions like these! Overnight the fleet was impacted by a small and very local low pressure cell nearly right on top of them.

Predictably Chuggy and Doug had a slow night.

Narrow Escape's design does not make much compromise for light wind sailing. It is long and flat with very little rocker resulting in a lot of wetted surface compared to its sail area. Since 2009 Chuggy has added a, roll up, Code Zero (badly trimmed picture above) to the inventory which they hope to use like a giant Genoa in the light windward work. But compared with other designs in their fleet, no matter what, Narrow Escape struggles in conditions like these.

Today better pressure (8 knots TWS) is estimated to stretch nearer inshore reaching it's apex at about 1500 today. This could be the play of the race - already. To reach it, and a rich get richer scenario of steadily increasing wind, Chuggy and Doug need to reach into their bag of tricks and find another 50 miles of offing before that time. Otherwise the area of increased wind retracts seaward again overnight.

Some of the boats in their division are 15 miles closer to getting there and those who do will sail away rolling up the (wind) carpet behind them. Those boats who escape will be sailing in progressively stronger winds and building a lead that may be difficult for those left behind to recover in the great weather pattern that has developed across the rest of the course.

Nothing interesting is forecast to happen after that until about dinnertime on Wednesday when the northwesterly wind 10 knots TWS is predicted to fill in over the area.

In the worst case scenario at least they will be well rested when things finally improve!

Above is a picture produced by Raytech showing Narrow Escape's 0600 position and the optimum route generated at that time.

The optimum route calculation is less than ideally reliable when wind strength predictions get into these low values and I don't think anyone wants to take a run up to Cape Concepcion.

The blue lines are Isochrones that Raytech explores when developing the optimum track. They are set in this picture at 4 hours. The Isochones show runs of just 12 to 16 miles for a while into the future but out on the west end of this picture they are averaging about 42 miles - so the trick is to get there!