These 24 Hours

Racing to Hawaii has evolved since the first race in 1906. Then just finding the islands was a sort of victory.

Now, using vast technology it is all about finding the fastest way to the islands. A key consideration in this pursuit is sailing in stronger wind and/or a more favourable angle. Other than Axle Fox no one I know can actually see the wind in front of his boat never mind miles into the future. Getting that right really impacts on the duration and enjoyment of your race.

Weather forecasting has come a long way in the intervening 100 years and now Meteorologists estimate the weather long into the future. These estimates are based on series of pressure predictions which they develop anticipating what might develop. They become less reliable the further out they go but still a useful tool. Now you can receive these weather charts on board and software, often found on board, can animate the charts to give a flowing picture of conditions expected.

And there are a lot of offshore weather routing services available to help sailors extract the nuances from the charts.

Reputedly one of the best for detailed inshore work around the Catalina Basin is Sailing Weather Service http://www.sailwx.com/. And I have reviewed it closely.

Presently the conditions down the course are near perfect. And they continue that way in the forecasts for the entire time our team should be on the water - so really good news except for the next 24 hours or 100 miles however you want to look at it.

The time tested, past the West End of Catalina and then head a little south, method has not looked good for more than a week because of some weird little High spinning near shore and another one further south.

In every scenario a course (scary) north of the great circle route is indicated at first and then a very near circle route the rest of the way. The Great Circle route is the shortest distance but it rarely pays. With the circle route you run a good chance of having the High come down and park on top of you - which means no wind.

The RayTech and Expedition Software, which read the GRIB Files (animated interpretation of the Weather Charts) are not nostalgic however and both suggest a course north after the start through Santa Barbara Channel all the way to Cape Conception - like 125 miles up the coast!

The time tested, getting past Catalina and then bearing off a little south approach has not looked good for more than a week with some weird little high spinning near shore and another further south.

I think our team will find their way near or slightly north of the great circle route on the shortest distance to the consistent wind.

You don't start to get into it at all until you are out past the islands - about 65 miles and complicating things greatly the consistent winds modeled pull out further offshore tonight meaning a potential night of drifting after midnight.

So here is what we think we know: The wind at the start was about 10 knots out of the NW. SailWX did not have that angle showing up until sometime between 1400 and 1700. If we begin to believe them at that point the wind still starts getting lighter before the West End.

There is an area of 4 to 6 knots TWS predicted out to past the islands but anything south of west is death.

It looks like there might be a bald spot with less than 4 knots TWS between the outer islands and about 85 miles offshore where things start to get better (8 knots TWS). But even then they must continue to apply themselves because that better wind pattern is predicted to retreat offshore in the wee hours around 0400 Tuesday morning.

The wild cards are catabatic effect wind near shore and islands and wind direction which I neglected to mention predicts fair amount of westerly flow between Catalina and the outer islands.

We must be mindful that there are newer designs that do much better that Narrow Escape in light wind and upwind and especially in light upwind.

If the predictions come true Chuggy and Dougie need to find a way to get out offshore about 85 miles in the about first 15 hours of the race. After that things get easier for our team.